Decision Library

Hard 12 vs 3

Hard 12 vs dealer 3 · six decks · dealer stands on soft 17 · double after split allowed

Correct play

Hit

The best you can do is hold the loss to -0.233 per unit, and hitting beats standing by 0.013 per unit.

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Deals a hard 12 against a dealer 3 in the trainer, graded live.

Expected value of every option

Per unit bet, six decks, dealer stands on soft 17, computed by the engine.

OptionEV / unitvs. best
HitBest-0.233
Stand-0.246-0.013
Double-0.466-0.233
Surrender-0.500-0.267
37.7%
Dealer busts showing 3
31.1%
You bust if you hit

Why hitting

Hard 12 is too low to leave alone against a 3. Standing surrenders the hand to a dealer who reaches a pat total most of the time, so you take the card. Your bust risk on the hit is 31.1%, and against this upcard that risk is worth accepting.

Hitting returns -0.233 per unit versus -0.246 for standing, a +0.013 swing in favor of taking the card.

The common mistake

It is tempting to stand on 12 and hope the dealer busts, but against a 3 that hope is too thin. Standing costs 0.013 per unit versus the correct hitting. Over a few hundred of these hands, that is real money handed back.

How rules change the play

Same hand, different table conditions. The correct play holds unless noted.

Table conditionCorrect play
6 decks, stands soft 17 (baseline)Hit
6 decks, hits soft 17Hit
Single deck, stands soft 17Stand changes
Double deck, stands soft 17Hit
No surrender offeredHit

The correct play changes under: Single deck, stands soft 17. Everywhere else, hit holds. Use the row that matches your table.

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Strategy and expected values from a combinatorial engine validated against Wizard of Odds.