Decision Library
Hard 15 vs dealer 3 · six decks · dealer stands on soft 17 · double after split allowed
Correct play
StandThe best you can do is hold the loss to -0.251 per unit, and standing beats hitting by 0.159 per unit.
Deals a hard 15 against a dealer 3 in the trainer, graded live.
Per unit bet, six decks, dealer stands on soft 17, computed by the engine.
| Option | EV / unit | vs. best |
|---|---|---|
| StandBest | -0.251 | — |
| Hit | -0.410 | -0.159 |
| Surrender | -0.500 | -0.249 |
| Double | -0.820 | -0.569 |
With a hard 15 you already hold a total the dealer has to beat, and the 3 is weak enough that letting the dealer draw is better than risking your own hand. The dealer busts 37.4% of the time showing a 3, while hitting would bust you 54.0% of the time.
Standing is worth -0.251 per unit; the closest alternative, hitting, comes in at -0.410. That 0.159 gap is the price of taking an unnecessary card.
Players hit a hard 15 out of fear of the dealer's 3, but the 3 is exactly why you stand. Hitting costs 0.159 per unit versus the correct standing. Over a few hundred of these hands, that is real money handed back.
Same hand, different table conditions. The correct play holds unless noted.
| Table condition | Correct play |
|---|---|
| 6 decks, stands soft 17 (baseline) | Stand |
| 6 decks, hits soft 17 | Stand |
| Single deck, stands soft 17 | Stand |
| Double deck, stands soft 17 | Stand |
| No surrender offered | Stand |
The play is stable: stand is correct across deck counts, the soft-17 rule, and whether or not surrender is offered.
Strategy and expected values from a combinatorial engine validated against Wizard of Odds.