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Caribbean Stud is one decision made once: after you see your five cards and the dealer's single up card, you either raise for exactly twice the ante or fold and lose the ante. Perfect strategy is a huge chart almost nobody memorizes, but this near-optimal version costs only 0.001 percent and reduces to three short rules. It is the same logic the trainer grades you against.
The whole strategy
- RaiseAny pair or better. Always, no matter the dealer's up card, down to a pair of deuces.
- FoldAnything worse than Ace-King high. A Queen-high hand or a lone Ace or King without the other is a fold every time.
- A-KAce-King high is the only real decision. Raise it if any one of the three rules below is true, otherwise fold.
Ace-King: raise if any apply
- Rule 1The dealer's up card is a 2 through Queen and matches the rank of one of your cards.
- Rule 2The dealer's up card is an Ace or King and you hold a Queen or a Jack.
- Rule 3The dealer's up card matches none of your cards, you hold a Queen, and the up card is lower than your fourth-highest card.
The idea behind all three: raise when your kickers are strong or when one of your cards blocks the dealer from pairing the up card.
Raise pay table (to one, U.S. standard)
| Royal flush | 100 |
| Straight flush | 50 |
| Four of a kind | 20 |
| Full house | 7 |
| Flush | 5 |
| Straight | 4 |
| Three of a kind | 3 |
| Two pair | 2 |
| Pair or high card | 1 |
How the hand settles
- QualifyThe dealer needs Ace-King high or better to qualify. Lowest qualifier is A-K-4-3-2; highest non-qualifier is A-Q-J-10-9.
- No qualIf the dealer does not qualify, the ante pays 1 to 1 and the raise pushes, win or lose.
- WinDealer qualifies and you win: ante pays 1 to 1, raise pays the ladder above.
- LoseDealer qualifies and beats you: ante and raise both lose. A tie pushes both.
Why this strategy, in numbers
| Strategy | House edge |
|---|---|
| Perfect optimal chart | 5.224% |
| These three rules | 5.225% |
| Raise A-K-J-8-3 or better | 5.316% |
| Raise any pair (never A-K) | 5.470% |
| Raise any Ace-King or better | 5.682% |
| Raise every hand (play blind) | 16.607% |
The three-rule strategy gives up just 0.001 percent versus the perfect chart, and playing blind is more than three times as expensive.
Common mistakes
- Folding small pairs. A pair of deuces is a raise. You are hoping the dealer misses Ace-King, and you still win both bets when the dealer shows up with Ace-King.
- Raising Queen-high hoping to get lucky. Anything below Ace-King is a mathematical fold. Raising it just donates the extra bet.
- Raising every Ace-King. Most Ace-King hands are folds. Only raise when one of the three rules is met.
- Chasing the jackpot. The dollar progressive side bet pays on a flush or better but carries about a 26 percent house edge on a typical meter. Fun, not smart.
Strategy, pay table, and house-edge figures from Michael Shackleford, Wizard of Odds — Caribbean Stud Poker. The trainer's engine reproduces his published 5.22 percent house edge and 2.24 standard deviation in a full Monte Carlo test.