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Spanish 21 strategy chart

The complete decision chart, generated by the same engine that grades the trainer. The chart and the trainer can never disagree, because they are the same table.

Short answer

Do not bring a blackjack chart to a Spanish 21 table. In Spanish 21 you hit hard 12 and hard 13 against every dealer upcard, you hit hard 15 and 16 against a 7 or higher, you always double hard 11, you never split fours, fives or ten-valued pairs, and you never split a suited pair of sevens against a dealer 7. The chart below is for six decks with the bonus 21s paid.

Dealer stands on soft 17

Hard totals

Your total2345678910A
8HHHHHHHHHH
9HHHHDHHHHH
10DDDDDDDHHH
11DDDDDDDDDD
12HHHHHHHHHH
13HHHHHHHHHH
14HHSSSHHHHH
15SSSSSHHHHH
16SSSSSHHHHH
17SSSSSSSSSS
18SSSSSSSSSS
19SSSSSSSSSS
20SSSSSSSSSS

Soft totals

Your total2345678910A
13HHHHHHHHHH
14HHHHDHHHHH
15HHHDDHHHHH
16HHHDDHHHHH
17HHDDDHHHHH
18SSDDDSSHHH
19SSSSSSSSSS
20SSSSSSSSSS

Pairs

Your pair2345678910A
A,APPPPPPPPPP
2,2HPPPPPHHHH
3,3PPPPPPPHHH
4,4HHHHHHHHHH
5,5DDDDDDDHHH
6,6HHPPPHHHHH
7,7PPPPPPHHHH
8,8PPPPPPPPPP
9,9SPPPPSPPSS
10,10SSSSSSSSSS

H is hit, S is stand, D is double (hit if doubling is not allowed), P is split, R is surrender. Columns are the dealer upcard.

Dealer hits soft 17

Only two cells change. Hard 17 against an ace becomes a surrender, and a pair of eights against an ace is hit rather than split.

Hard totals

Your total2345678910A
8HHHHHHHHHH
9HHHHDHHHHH
10DDDDDDDHHH
11DDDDDDDDDD
12HHHHHHHHHH
13HHHHHHHHHH
14HHSSSHHHHH
15SSSSSHHHHH
16SSSSSHHHHH
17SSSSSSSSSR
18SSSSSSSSSS
19SSSSSSSSSS
20SSSSSSSSSS

Soft totals

Your total2345678910A
13HHHHHHHHHH
14HHHHDHHHHH
15HHHDDHHHHH
16HHHDDHHHHH
17HHDDDHHHHH
18SSDDDSSHHH
19SSSSSSSSSS
20SSSSSSSSSS

Pairs

Your pair2345678910A
A,APPPPPPPPPP
2,2HPPPPPHHHH
3,3PPPPPPPHHH
4,4HHHHHHHHHH
5,5DDDDDDDHHH
6,6HHPPPHHHHH
7,7PPPPPPHHHH
8,8PPPPPPPPPH
9,9SPPPPSPPSS
10,10SSSSSSSSSS

H is hit, S is stand, D is double (hit if doubling is not allowed), P is split, R is surrender. Columns are the dealer upcard.

Double-down rescue

Rescue is a decision, not a consolation. After you double and take your card, you may forfeit the original bet and take the doubled portion back. The engine says to rescue a doubled hand of 16 or less against a dealer 8, 9, ten-valued card or ace, and nothing else. When the dealer hits soft 17, also rescue a doubled 17 against an ace.

Dealer upcardRescue a doubled total of
2 through 7Never
816 or less
916 or less
10-valued16 or less
Ace16 or less, and 17 or less if the dealer hits soft 17

Rescue is used on about 1.40% of rounds SIM and is worth roughly 0.15 percentage points of house edge. Players who never use it give that back.

The suited sevens exception

The chart says to split a pair of sevens against a dealer 7. There is one exception, and it overrides the chart: if the two sevens are the same suit and the dealer shows a 7, do not split, and do not double. Hit, and hope for the third suited seven. Conditional on holding suited 7-7 against a dealer 7, the matching third seven arrives about 1.40% of the time EXACT, and it pays the Super Bonus. On a minimum bet that outcome is worth roughly 2.8 units of expectation, which dwarfs anything splitting can gain. See the bonuses page.

What changes from blackjack, and why

HandBlackjackSpanish 21Reason
Hard 12 vs 4, 5, 6StandHitThe dealer busts less often, and you bust less often when you hit.
Hard 13 vs 2, 3StandHitSame reason, plus the bonus 21s reward drawing.
Hard 16 vs 10Surrender or hitHitFewer tens means a lower bust rate on the draw.
Hard 11 vs aceHit or doubleDoubleDoubling freedom and the always-wins 21 rule raise the value of an 11.
Pair of 4sSplit vs 5, 6Never splitSplit hands cannot earn bonus 21s.
Pair of 9s vs 7StandStandUnchanged, but the pair of 9s row is otherwise different from blackjack.

How this chart was produced

An exact combinatorial engine computes the dealer's outcome distribution for the six-deck Spanish shoe with the dealer's peek applied. A recursive expected-value solver then evaluates hit, stand, double, rescue, split and surrender for every reachable player hand, weighting each composition by the exact probability of being dealt it. Every pair-splitting decision was then re-verified with a paired Monte Carlo simulation dealing from a real shoe, so that re-splits, draw-and-double on split aces and the void-bonus-after-split rule are all priced as they actually occur. The chart, the trainer's grading and the simulated house edge all read from the same table.

Common questions

Why do I hit hard 12 against a 6?

Two reasons. The dealer with a 6 busts 38.36% of the time in a Spanish deck EXACT rather than the 42.28% you would see with a standard deck, so waiting for the bust is worth less. And with no tens in the deck, hitting a 12 busts you less often. Both changes point the same way.

Is late surrender ever right?

Not when the dealer stands on soft 17. When the dealer hits soft 17, surrender hard 17 against an ace, and nothing else. The engine found that hand used on 0.35% of rounds SIM.

Does the chart change with the number of decks?

The chart above is computed for six decks. Eight-deck games shift a small number of borderline cells. [TODO: compute and publish the eight-deck Spanish 21 chart and its house edge.]

Keep going

Spanish 21 strategyThe complete decision library, including rescue. House edgeWhat each rule is worth, computed. Open the trainerPractice with instant, engine-graded feedback.