Ultimate Texas Hold’em odds and probabilities
Deal any starting hand thousands of times and watch how it actually performs against a random dealer. Every figure below is simulated and labeled with its margin of error.
Short answer
A strong starting hand like A-K wins roughly two-thirds of the time; marginal hands hover near a coin flip. Across all hands the dealer qualifies (makes a pair or better) about four times in five, and you finish with a pair or better far more often than with high card. Use the tool below to get exact-labeled odds for any two cards.
Hand-probability explorer
Pick two cards and a suit; the engine deals the hand to the river tens of thousands of times and reports win / tie / loss plus the chance of making each category. Every number carries a 95% confidence interval, because these are simulated, not enumerated.
Reading the numbers
Two things matter for strategy. First, your win rate drives whether a raise is worth its cost. Second, the dealer-qualifies rate matters because a non-qualifying dealer pushes your Ante — a quiet subsidy that rewards aggression. For the money version of these odds, see expected value.
Exact vs simulated
Per-hand win rates depend on a huge space of dealer holdings and future board cards, so we simulate them. River spots, by contrast, have a small enough space to enumerate exactly — that is why the river tools are marked exact and these are marked simulated.
Common questions
Why do the odds change slightly each run?
Because they are Monte Carlo estimates. Each run deals a fresh sample, so results wiggle within the stated 95% interval. Larger samples shrink the interval but never eliminate it.
How often does the dealer qualify?
Roughly four hands in five — the exact rate depends on the board. Run any hand above and read the “dealer qualifies” figure for a live estimate with its margin of error.
What are my chances of making a flush or better?
Modest — usually a few percent by the river. The explorer’s “make at least” panel shows the cumulative odds for every category from pair up to straight flush.